The analysis states that investors are expected to contribute funds to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) according to the relative market cap of Ether and Bitcoin.
In Short:
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts that ether spot ETFs will draw $15 billion in net inflows in the first 18 months.
- According to the report, potential inflows can be expected by comparing Bitcoin and Ethereum’s market capitalizations.
- Bitcoin benefits from the first-mover advantage, which could reduce inflows into spot ether ETFs.
Ether (ETH) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are projected to receive net inflows of $15 billion during their first 18 months of existence, according to a report released on Monday by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. These ETFs are expected to be allowed to trade in the United States soon.
According to the report, comparing the relative market capitalization of Ethereum and Bitcoin (BTC) is one technique for assessing potential inflows. According to the survey, Bitcoin currently holds 74% of the total market value. It is likely that investors will invest similar amounts in Ethereum ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs.
Since their launch in January, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $56 billion in investments from US investors. By the end of 2025, this amount is projected to grow to $100 billion or more. A significant portion of this growth will come from large wirehouses that will allow the products for trading on their platforms, the asset manager said.
“Using this $100 billion figure as a reference, spot ether ETPs would need to attract $35 billion in assets to reach parity, a process I expect will take about 18 months,” according to Hougan.
With assets under management (AUM) of $10 billion, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is expected to be converted into a spot ETF, attracting investments worth $25 billion at the equivalent level.
However, the report pointed out that Ether ETPs make up only 22%–23% of all AUM in Canada, “which is slightly less than their full market capitalization weighting.” Hougan wrote that this difference can be attributed to Bitcoins first-mover advantage.
“A few speculators may have bought a Bitcoin ETP and ceased there, considering their crypto presentation was secured,” Assuming ETFs only account for 22% of the market, as in Canada, the projection of net fresh inflows falls to $18 billion, with additional variables shaving off another $3 billion.
