According to cryptocurrency market maker GSR Markets, if a spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) were to become available in the US, the price of SOL could increase by ninefold.
In a report published on June 27, the firm called Solana one of “crypto’s big three.” The firm also considered the possibility of Solana (SOL) becoming the next cryptocurrency ETF to receive U.S. regulatory approval.
Amazingly, GSR’s analysis was made public on the same day VanEck applied to launch a spot on Solana ETF, which caught many off guard.
Forecasts and Scenarios from GSR Markets
GSR, which has a long position in SOL, projected “8.9 xs,” which was based on the assumption that, given their respective market capitalization sizes, the spot Solana ETF would receive 14% of the inflows that the spot Bitcoin ETF has seen since its January launch.
GSR’s “blue sky situation” would see Solana costs bounce from $149 to more than $1,320. Solana’s market capitalization would rise to $614 billion if present supply levels were maintained.
In the interim, GSR’s “bear” and “pattern” scenarios would see spot Solana ETFs take in 2% and 5% of Bitcoin, coming about in 1.4x and 3.4x cost increments for SOL, separately.
The price of SOL under base, bear and bull scenarios. Source: GSR Markets
Impact of Staking Rewards on ETF Approximations
The company added that, while staking is restricted in the approved spot Ether (ETH $3,440) ETF, these estimates would be significantly higher if the spot Solana ETF included income from staking rewards.
“If more spot digital asset ETFs are permitted in the US, Solana is prepared for a spot ETF, and the affect on the price may be the greatest yet.”
Regulatory Obstacles and the SEC’s Position
GSR may be optimistic, but Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas and others think that a spot in Solana ETF will not be taken seriously until the US President and the Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission change.
The lawsuits filed against Binance and Coinbase have been tagged as securities by the SEC and its chair, Gary Gensler. Compared to spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, this classification makes the approval process more difficult.
Expanded Framework and Market Advancements
VanEck’s application comes a week after cryptocurrency asset manager 3iQ applied for a spot in the Solana ETF in Canada, checking a North American to begin with.
Solana’s recent price performance and major developments. Source: GSR
Franklin Templeton, which manages $1.5 trillion in assets, has also praised the Solana ecosystem and network. Solana exchange-traded products are already available globally for over a billion dollars’ worth of value.
